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John is back. This is the first of many podcasts to come, so get ready!. Ep 121

Speaker 1:
This is The Thomas Guide, your roadmap for navigating the world, with your guide, John Thomas. Political savant, world-class analyst and culture critic. No need to Google directions, just buckle up and enjoy the ride. This is The Thomas Guide, with your host, John Thomas.

John Thomas:
We’re going to get into Tucker Carlson’s monologue from last night, where he really went into depth on right track/wrong track. I’m actually going to explain what that means, how it’s derived, and he got it mostly right. That and more in this episode of The Thomas Guide.

John Thomas:
Okay, let’s get back into it. I know it’s been a long while since I’ve done an actual podcast. So, here’s the deal. First of all, I’m sorry for the delay, it’s been incredibly busy over here at my shop. But because we’re in election season, we’re in the thick of it, I don’t want to leave you completely high and dry. So, here’s the format of what I want to do going forward.

John Thomas:
I’m doing, on average, I would say two television hits a week, maybe three segments a week. I’m going to repost those segments as individual podcasts, so you get a sense of … usually I’m covering the hot topic of the day or I’m arguing with a Democrat, so I thought you’d enjoy that. So we’ll share that content, both on podcasts, as well as I’ll grab the video content and post it on my website. So you’ll be able to get it there, of course, for free. So, there you go.

John Thomas:
Also, I’m going to do a weekly podcast hitting on the biggest issues that I’m finding to be interesting. You also can tweet me @TheThomasGuide on Twitter, or you can go to my website and ask me questions. If you want me to get to those questions, happy to do it. The race is really at an interesting point right now. If the election were held today, Donald Trump would lose the election. That doesn’t mean that he will lose in November, but today he would lose. So, there’s plenty of time for him to recover. Well, not plenty, but there’s time for him to recover.

John Thomas:
I just did a segment this morning, a TV segment this morning, where we talked a little bit about why Joe Biden’s campaign strategy has really just been to play it safe, emphasize his personality, that he seems like a nice fellow. Keep him away from answering any sort of tough questions, and that’s a winning strategy. Because right now, the polling is good for him, so you don’t need to swing it. If you try to hit it over the fence and you miss, that can blow it all together. So, right now they’re playing it safe.

John Thomas:
It’s frustrating, because I believe there’s really stark contrast, both in intellectual capacity, as well as policy differences. I think Joe Biden is essentially a Manchurian candidate, he’s an empty shell. Joe Biden is not going to be running Joe Biden’s White House, his staff, the party, left activists, they’re going to be dictating policy and running The White House. I don’t believe that Joe Biden has the mental stamina to make policy decisions and withstand the rigors that it is to be president.

John Thomas:
So, we’ll get into that in another podcast. But what I did want to talk about was Tucker Carlson did his opening monologue last night, it got me all fired up and something struck me. He spent some time talking about this polling question. You remember, I do a lot of polling, but this polling question, it’s called the direction of the country question or sometimes referred to as right track/wrong track. Tucker was referring to the idea that Democrats like numbers, wrong track.

John Thomas:
Meaning, well, Democrats want the wrong track to be high, because that’s good for business, that’s good politics. Because generally speaking, if the wrong track numbers are completely lopsided, if one is swaying heavily in one direction [inaudible 00:04:37] other, that is a good indicator of whether voters will vote to keep the existing regime in power or make a change.

John Thomas:
I’ve harped on this show, on Fox, on CNN and elsewhere about this right track/wrong track concept for years, because it’s one of those indicators that I look at when I’m trying to read the tea leaves of whether the electorates really spitting mad, and there’ll be open to a message of change, or they want to keep things the way they’ve always been. Keep the good times rolling.

John Thomas:
So Tucker’s not wrong, Democrats want the American people to believe we’re on the wrong track. So therefore, the Democrats’ message, along with the mainstream media message is in unison that things have never been worse, racism is at an all-time high, everything’s terrible, nothing’s getting better. That further cements that feeling and perception of the American public that we’re on the wrong track.

John Thomas:
So, I want to go through some of the right track/wrong track numbers that I’ve been looking at. I looked at a blend of polls, of national polls with different sample sizes, different methodologies, to give us a sense of the spread of where we’re at. Yeah, it’s not good right now. Going back, back in, let’s see, end of February, early March, the right track/wrong track was pretty closely aligned within 10 points. That’s right about where you would want to see for the country to reelect the current power regime.

John Thomas:
Now, the trend is spreading. There is upwards of a, let’s see, over a 40 point spread with 68% of the American people saying that they’re on the wrong track, 23% saying they’re on the right track. That’s not good. Trump’s going to have to tighten those numbers if he wants to hold onto power. He can, but he’s going to have to tighten those numbers, there’s just no way around it.

John Thomas:
Now, I went back and looked historically at right track/wrong track in different elections, went back and looked at November of 2016. Yes, there was a 46 point spread in the right track/wrong track, heavily favoring wrong track. So, that might explain in essence how the American public was open to change.

John Thomas:
So when you go back in time, it’s not unusual to see a deepening spread around election time. That’s not unusual, because you have one political party barking saying how things are so bad, and the other saying how things are so good. That’s not unusual, but it is particularly bad at this moment. So, Trump’s got to tighten those numbers, Democrats in the mainstream media aren’t going to do him any favors to make his life any easier there. So, he’s got his work cut out for him.

John Thomas:
But Tucker’s right, that you can look at these right track/wrong track numbers. Polling is more complicated than that, but that’s one of those numbers, along with what we call an image question, and there’s also something called a hard reelect question. The image is, do you have a favorable impression or unfavorable impression? Basically, do you like them or not like the office holder?

John Thomas:
Then the hard reelect question is another big question, which is, okay, your personal feelings aside, will you or will you not vote for to reelect Donald Trump as President? Because we find all the time that people vote for people they don’t like. It’s better if they like them, we like those numbers to sync up, but it happens all the time. So you need to look at polling, not just simply in a vacuum.

John Thomas:
But to Tucker’s point, looking at that perceived direction of the country, that right track/wrong track question, it confirms why Trump’s numbers are not in a good place today, let’s just say that. Also, if you’re Biden, it means that when you say things are terrible in your campaign ads, that’s going to resonate, it’s going to be a little stickier than if Donald Trump puts ads and says everything is roses and petunias.

John Thomas:
So, Tucker’s right. I love talking about polling. If you want me to go into more depth about Biden’s numbers, where his soft spots are, and he’s got plenty of them, how Donald Trump should frame this election if he wants to pull this thing out and what he has to do, I can get into all those details, of course.

John Thomas:
If you haven’t signed up for my email, please do. Go to Thethomasguide.com. You can sign up on my website, it’s all free. Of course, I’ll be posting my TV clips a couple of times a week. Send me any questions if you have, I’m so glad to be back. We’re just getting warmed up into presidential season, you’re not going to want to miss my weekly podcast. Have a great weekend.

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