TGuide3.5.20_mixdown 0 Speaker 1: (00:00)This is the Thomas guide your roadmap for navigating a world with your guide. John Thomas, political savant, world-class analyst and culture critic. No need to Google directions. Just buckle up and enjoy the ride. This is let Thomas guide with your host, John Thomas dust has settled from super Tuesday and I can unpack what the heck happened. Plus lizard is Warren ROPs out of the field. Is Biden going to be the nominee? I’ll explain in this episode of the Thomas guide. Speaker 2: (00:44)Welcome back to another episode of the Thomas guide. I’m your host, John Thomas. Holy moly. Super Tuesday was awesome. Uh, from a political junkie standpoint, it really does it get any better than this does it? Um, okay. I’m going to unpack super Tuesday news just broke. Elizabeth Warren threw in the towel and gave up. Uh, she dropped out of the race. This should be no surprise. She didn’t win a single state on super Tuesday. But I’ll talk about the impact of that. And is Joe Biden definitely going to be the nominee? I’ll get into that. And then what’s coming up next? We’ve got Michigan in about a week. I’ll explain what to watch for here. But first, if you haven’t gone to my website and signed up for my email list, do it now. Go to the Thomas guide.com. It’s the Thomas guide.com. Sign up for the email list. It’s Bri and you got to do it for a reason. Speaker 2: (01:45)First of all, you’re doing me a favor, so thank you. But secondly, it’s where you’re going to get a daily email every time the podcast comes up. So you’re going to be first to know when it’s live and I give extra bonus content. There’ll be an ebook on how to think like a strategist. Yeah, we’ll be rolling out very shortly. And you know, I speak, I do a lot of Fox news hits, uh, segments. I do, uh, I speak on panels all the time. For instance, uh, just last night I was with a friend of mine who’s a professor at Chapman university in, we did a panel with a presidential professor. She was really interesting as well as two democratic strategists and myself. And we were there for about two hours and in front of a bunch of students. I would add that I don’t think there was a Trump supporter in the audience, which kind of made it fun. Speaker 2: (02:38)Mmm. And we talked about super Tuesday, our thoughts on the ideal vice presidential pick and more. I aye had a videographer there captured the whole thing. Well, we’re going to share that content, but only exclusively with our email subscribers. So go to the Thomas guide.com. Sign up for the email list. It’s free. And that’s, that’s, I’m going to give a bunch of bonus content. All right, let’s put that behind us now. Moving along. All right, let’s talk about super Tuesday. No question about it. That Joe Biden crushed on super Tuesday. Yes. Sanders won the biggest trophy of the night, which is California by and large. He underperformed. He should’ve carried Texas a place where there are demographics like Latinos where Sanders does quite well. Uh, Sanders was polling above Biden in most of the States prior to Saturday. Uh, Biden definitely shrunk the lead in almost every state and one States that he shouldn’t have. Speaker 2: (03:47)One prior to Saturday. I’m calling it Joe mentum. I mean, it’s undeniable that although Biden was almost a dead, his campaign was nearly on Ozon fumes. It was limping to the finish prior to Saturday. He’s picked up big Joe mentum and is he unstoppable? Well, look, I will eat humble pie where I need to, and this is one of those cases where you will remember that I have been short on Joe Biden being the nominee pretty much since day one. So it binds the nominee. I got that wrong. But with the exception of this, the unforeseen circumstance of Joe Biden, uh, becoming the nominee is really not a Testament to Joe Biden. It’s a Testament to the establishment, the democratic establishment here, panic that Bernie Sanders might be the nominee. I’ve never seen a coalescing around one candidate, by the way. It really isn’t that strong of a candidate. We’ll get into that in a second. Speaker 2: (04:58)And I’ve then I’ve seen since in this cycle, since Saturday, they’re rallying around essentially anybody at Bernie. And so it’s not really a, a Testament to any smart campaigning that Joe Biden has done. He was always going to win South Carolina. Now we’re credit where credit is due. He had to win South Carolina, but when it bigly, yeah. To win it with double digits, and he did, he crushed it in South Carolina, which allowed the democratic establishment to stop Bernie by coalescing around somebody who they thought might have the appearance of momentum, but by every objective standard, Joe Biden has run a terrible effort. Do you know that Joe Biden hadn’t aired a single super Tuesday ad prior two super Tuesday? Not a single ad. He didn’t even many. The States that he won on Tuesday, he never even visited. Did he visit in the state of California? Do you know that? Speaker 2: (06:05)They wouldn’t say how many staffers they have had on the ground because I’ve got news. You didn’t have any, he didn’t have a field office anywhere in the state of California on super Tuesday. [inaudible] objectively speaking, he’s run a terrible GAF round campaign despite starting out a year or so ago as the polling leader far and away. And he was on a steady decline, not able to turn out, uh, over any, any, Mmm results until South Carolina. He screwed the pooch in Iowa. And yes, maybe he wasn’t going to win Iowa, but he had a pathetic finish cause he couldn’t run an organization or an effort. He got, he, he got blown out in a, uh, in New Hampshire. There’s just, please point to me one place other than South Carolina where Joe is run a good textbook race. He hasn’t had good debates. He’s been gaffe prone. He forgets what state is in. Speaker 2: (07:15)He forgets yes. Uh, disoriented when he’s even on the stage giving speeches. He can’t decide who is his sister and who is his wife. He tells people he’s running for the U S Senate. Mmm. I mean, he’s a daughtering fool to be honest with you. Yeah. He might be [inaudible] he’s got very good odds to be the democratic nominee. He might be the democratic nominee in spite of himself because he’s the do no harm choice. And the only option that the Democrats have just stop Bernie Sanders. So right place, right time politics is about momentum, luck, timing, all of these things. And Biden certainly hit his stride at the right place at the right time. So Mmm. And he saw a rapid consolidation of the field with all of the dropouts Saturday night, Sunday night, Monday, and now Warren’s out obviously. So that also accelerated the momentum of course, rather than like in 2016 were candidates kind of stuck it out, um, until it was too late to stop Trump. Speaker 2: (08:33)So really perfect storm for Joe Biden. But I do want to caution you that we talked about this last night at the Chapman, uh, uh, class. Uh, so if you sign up for my email list, we’ll have that uploaded. I think this afternoon you’d be able to see it. It’s, it’s a, I really enjoyed the conversation, so I would recommend listening it, but I do want to caution you, Joe Biden is still Joe Biden. He’s a bad candidate. Yes. Can he be the nominee? For sure. You can. Yeah, absolutely. It can be the nominee. In fact, probably we’ll get into it, but if, if Bernie doesn’t win Michigan, uh, next week it’s probably lights out. It’s only gonna get worse. Uh, the map just doesn’t look good. Four Bernie Sanders going forward because the States that are coming up, uh, really have large African American populations where Biden does well. Bernie’s a little bit weaker. Speaker 2: (09:35)Um, it’s going to be rough for Bernie Sanders going forward unless Joe Biden completely blows it. And I do want to get into this. So I give this caveat of, well, if Biden doesn’t blow it, widen could blow it. If you look at a peed booted judge and Elizabeth Warren, uh, Bernie Sanders, um, by Barack Obama, these are very, uh, steady, predictable political campaigners. Meaning they’re not going to say something wildly off script that will, that [inaudible] cause their candidacy to go sideways. Um, honestly, uh, this is the issue. One of the issues I have with Biden is yes, momentum makes up for a lot of ills. The fact that he didn’t air TV ads, the fact that he has no field organization, all of these things. But at the end of the day, uh, the candidate, if he screws up and you know, sniff somebodies hair does something really, really weird, it could completely derail. Speaker 2: (10:50)Is Cammie candidacy now? Aye. The media is on Biden’s side. The establishment is on Biden’s side. So they’re going to cover up or a lot of his weird things that end, he will do weird things. He will, you will get off message, he will ramble. He will forget where he is. He’ll say things that he has to walk back. The media is going to try to cover, uh, for all of that. But there may be something that the media can’t cover up. Uh, so that is a possibility. But even still, uh, it’s probably [inaudible] Biden’s probably unstoppable at this point with momentum on his side. All right. Uh, let’s look at a couple of other things. [inaudible] Mmm. Elizabeth Warren dropped out this morning and why? Well, she didn’t win any super Tuesday States, so, um, she wanted to continue on. She didn’t even carry her home, her home state, Massachusetts, which is embarrassing. Speaker 2: (11:45)Um, she wanted to continue on, but there’s tremendous infighting within the organization, which sometimes happens as fizzling out, but more importantly, the money’s been choked off when you’re such a loser. Like she is at this point. You can’t raise small dollars if you can’t raise campaign war chest, you can’t pay staff, you can’t pay utility bills. You can’t pay flights to the next States and you can’t buy advertising. So even if she wants to stick it out to a convention, a contested convention perhaps. Mmm. She can’t endure. So she dropped out. That’s it. Mmm. She’s stubborn, but, and so she probably didn’t want to drop out. Quite frankly. She should have dropped out before super Tuesday. Uh, but she didn’t want to drop out. Now the question is, does she endorse, who does she endorse? Does she throw in behind Bernie or Biden? It’s a good question. Speaker 2: (12:41)On the one hand, Mmm. She aligns philosophically with Bernie Sanders and they know each other. Some people say, well, they’ve got a feud. I think the feud between them really was just a, a moment in time. It really was, had been longtime friends and colleagues, so I don’t, uh, uh, they’d been warriors for the cause of the S of the far left for a long time. So I don’t think, I think there isn’t bad blood still with the two of them. On the other hand, every politician likes to seemingly back a winner. So does she back Joe Biden, since he has momentum on his side, the problem with a backing of a Joe Biden is it is so antithetical to who Elizabeth Warren is and what she says she stands for that it makes her look like a complete hypocrite, which she is. And some she’s, she was a hypocrite on super PACS and dark money. Speaker 2: (13:33)Uh, she, she’s been a hypocrite on her DNA. [inaudible] things like this. But, um, I tend to think that she either won’t endorse or she’ll throw it in behind Bernie, uh, because this is her last what? Mmm. The trouble is if Bernie, if she waited till after Michigan, if Bernie loses Michigan, she may not endorse or she may throw behind Biden because it just looks like Bernie’s dead on arrival. So she may just buy herself some time by herself a few days, see what happens in Michigan and to make it decision after that. So now the field is between Bernie Biden and Tulsi Tulsi Gavart who would have thought that she would have been the last remaining democratic female on the stage. Now Tulsi is not going to be the nominee. Tulsi could run as an independent. That’s possible. Um, but she is still in this race now. We haven’t really talked about Bloomberg. Speaker 2: (14:31)Bloomberg’s dropped out. As we all know, he spent $500 million to win [inaudible] Samoa. Okay. 500 million. He couldn’t win one other state. Pretty bad return on the investment. I would say. Now I don’t want to hear it, uh, from you. I don’t want to hear it from my candidates or companies that I work with saying, Oh huh. Advertising doesn’t work right. It’s not effective. You don’t need a lot of money. You can still run campaigns without it. It’s all about momentum, blah, blah, blah. Oh yes, totally. Momentum is important, but money is critical. Advertising does work, but you can put lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig. Mmm. That advertising done well has to be has to back up the right. You have to sell a product where the product is good. In this case, the product was crap. Speaker 2: (15:29)I would argue. Now it’s all hindsight at this time. Um, you know, it was a hard decision to make in the moment, but I think that had Bloomberg not debated and he now shown up to that Vegas debate, Bloomberg would still be in this race and very well might be on track to be the democratic nominee. Bloomberg had a huge implosion when it turned out that, oops, you can’t debate. And he’s, he, he imploded. And there was a, uh, kamikaze Warren coming for him in the debates. If he had not showed up at the debate, he could have stalled. And I don’t think there would have been this mass Exodus to support Joe Biden after South Carolina because Bloomberg would have still looked like a decent choice. So, Mmm. Amazing how some of these strategic decisions have completely undermined, uh, literally half a billion dollars of spend for Bloomberg. [inaudible] again, you’ve got to have a good candidate. Speaker 2: (16:39)Uh, maybe it doesn’t have to be the world’s best debater, but you, you’ve got to not implode. Or you got to know your candidates strengths and weaknesses and just say, Hey boss, we’re literally going to let our ads do the talking and only our ads do the talking all the way to super Tuesday and see how it goes from there. I actually think Bloomberg would have fared fine and debates against Biden. I really do. I think he would have been fine because Biden’s not that great of a debater. So it’s all hindsight. Uh, but wait, wait, what a way. Waste literally a half a billion dollars. Now Bloomberg, uh, if he makes good on his pledge, which I think he will, has said that he will spend another billion to defeat Donald Trump and get and give it to whoever the democratic nominee is. Partially it’s, he signed, he has over 2200 field staffers built out. Speaker 2: (17:29)He spilled out this apparatus across the country and supposedly he’s going to hand that over to whoever the democratic nominee is probably, uh, uh, Joe Biden. It looks like at this point. Um, number one, it’s a little tricky, uh, because that would be a campaign finance if he actually just, he can’t cut a check to Joe Biden. So it has to be an independent expenditure. There are ways to navigate that, but in, but in essence, Biden is now being handed a top tier field network that he didn’t have before that he, I mean, talk about a lucky son of a gun. Literally Biden had no organization and he’s been handed a national top tier fuel organization that’s been built out by a billionaire and now they’re ready to go. They’d been paid for through November for Joe Biden. Here you go. Joe. I think it’s hilarious. As you step back, if you look at how hypocritical the Democrats are, one, they issue big money in politics, a repeal, citizens United, we’ve got to repeal citizens United yet they’re all accepting super PAC money and they had several billionaires in the race that were top tier candidates for some time. Speaker 2: (18:48)And the candidate that they all rally behind is the establishment candidate. That takes big money, right? Even Elizabeth Warren ended up taking a, her own super PAC to save her hide in the home stretch. It didn’t work, but she took tens of millions of dollars in super PAC money. Okay. Oh yeah. Do as I say, not as I do. Then of course, Democrats are always lambasted Republicans for being old white racists, homophobes and anti women. Yet they had a diverse field to start out with and systematically killed each one off only to choose B to tween [inaudible] terribly old boring white guys, a socialist from Vermont and a guy, a Senator, former vice president who I think he was there when the [inaudible] declaration of independence was signed. I mean, it’s, it’s, they say it’s hilarious actually. Um, and they’re being completely fueled by what a 77 year old white billionaire from New York, from wall street, uh, and they’re T E Joe Biden is accepting a field apparatus and $1 billion of special interest superPAC cash. Speaker 2: (20:11)I get it. Okay. Well, I guess it’s Republicans that are anti woman and uh, [inaudible] it just, uh, it cracks me up. Of course. We know that the Democrats are hypocrites. We know that the only reason they yell against citizens United is because they want to raise it money on it and whip up their base. Oh, this is also the same party. It says, we’ve got to repeal the electoral college because it’s racist. Yet when every candidate back in Nevada was asked onto the base stage, would they lay by the rule? Uh, would they go for the popular vote? If Bernie Sanders essentially gets the most delegates and every single one of them, except for Bernie Sanders says, no, no, no, no. I think the system of a brokered convention makes a lot of sense. Oh yeah. It makes a lot of sense. Yeah. They really don’t care about whether it’s the popular vote or whatever. Speaker 2: (21:13)There’s no principles. Whatever benefits them in the moment is what they’ll do. That is the philosophy of the left. And it’s just, it’s funny, but also sad as it just become so apparent as time goes on. So, uh, this is where the race stands at the moment. It’s a two person race. Clearly Bernie’s last stand is in Michigan. If he, he could potentially reset the race in Michigan, but it’s going to be tough. Uh, I saw polling before Biden’s balance in a, I think it was last week that showed Biden up by seven in Michigan. Now things change. This is a very fluid race. Older polling is not really predictive of where we’re going to be, but Biden undeniably has momentum on his side. And, uh, and that’s a very powerful thing in presidential politics. So, uh, one thing I do want to speak to is, okay, let’s assume for the sake of argument, Joe Biden’s the nominee against, uh, Barack Obama. Speaker 2: (22:18)Alright, okay. Against Donald Trump. I actually would argue that Bernie Sanders is a more competitive candidate to Donald Trump. I don’t know that Bernie could be Trump, but I think Sanders is more competitive. He’s authentic. You believe he means what he says. And I think he connects with working people in their plight more on an economic level. Uh, what really does Joe Biden, what’s his message? Well, he hasn’t really had a message. He kind of settled into his own on Saturday. I think he was at his best. But I think even that message is in great. So let’s, let’s walk through the evolution of his message. First it was, I’m running because I’m the only one who could be Donald Trump. Well, that’s a great message. I mean that’s, that’s, that’s a message. It’s a process message. It’s fine until you look like you’re not going to be Donald Trump. So you have a slow fundraising quarter, which he did until you start dipping in the polls, which he did. Speaker 2: (23:13)You start making mistakes, which he did in the polls in the head to head stackup start showing other candidates that look competitive, which they did. So that’s all the reasons why. And then, by the way, when you start losing States, right. So, well that it was a shoot. Then he switched his message too. Stealing John McCain’s straight talk express message. He called it the Nobel Archy message. Right. And that was at weird. It didn’t resonate. Yeah. So he that then he picked a message called restore the soul of the nation, which ironically is a little bit of make America great again. It’s the different prescription, but it’s basically Trump’s original message in 2016, which is go back in time to, in America used to be good. She’s really funniest, uh, because Democrats [inaudible] say they for they’re for progress and moving forward, yet I addons core messages. Speaker 2: (24:15)Let’s go back, let’s go back in time, restore the soul of the nation. Well, that didn’t really do it either. Mmm. Then, uh, he kind of muddled around and then he finally settled on what I think was his best message, but I don’t think it’s enough on Saturday, which is Joe is his restoring decency. It’s about bringing decency and honor back into the oval office. Basically. Joe’s a nice, good human being. Well, I think that’s the most authentic message he’s had. It resonates. He’s able, Joe’s able to deliver it. I think Joe is a nice guy. I think there are plenty of ways to undermine that issue. For instance, he’s a decency honest guy. Really. He’s actually very swampy now that Joe’s looking like he’d be the nominee. We get to revisit Hunter Biden and Joe’s relatives because Joe, truthfully, although I think he’s a very nice fellow on a one on one level, like he can make small talk. Speaker 2: (25:18)Okay. He’s no different than any swampy politician. We’ve had a Republican or Democrat. He’s exploited the levers of power to make his self just number one, staying power to make his immediate family and extended family rich. Literally, whether it’s through government action or inaction, you access to Joe or other colleagues is not just Hunter. It’s many of Biden’s relatives that have all exploited their access and Joe’s allowed the access to power. So I think there are plenty of ways he like, Oh wait a second. That’s actually not so decent, Joe. That’s pretty swampy. Uh, so I think he can be attacked there. But let’s just, let’s just assume for the sake of argument that is a decent guy. He’s a nice guy. Okay. But that’s not what this election’s going to be about. This election is going to be about [inaudible] an issue. Whether or not you think you’re better off economically under president Trump or Joe Biden. Speaker 2: (26:24)Ah, what, what exactly number one binds. Not even speaking to the economy, but let’s assume that he becomes a nominee and his advisors say, Hey Joe, we got to whip you into shape. You’ve got to talk about the economy. What’s it going to do? Brag about Barack Obama’s economy. Mmm. I don’t see where the argument is. In fact, Biden’s to all of the establishment donors right now saying, don’t worry it. Wall street donors, the business donors, don’t worry, nothing will change under my administration. Nothing will change. So basically you’re saying you’ll continue the policies of the guy in the white house. You’re just a nicer guy. Speaker 2: (27:01)I don’t see that being a winning message. There’s other troubles that Biden has. One is if you look at focus groups and cross tabs and survey work, he actually does not do well with college educated white women. He’s not a, he’s not popular with that group. He’s not endearing. He’s an old white, misogynistic man who sniffs hairs and touch people inappropriately. Now, some could say, Oh, well, Trump has his own access. Hollywood true, but Trump isn’t running as a decent man. That’s not his core message. And there’s a different standard when you run that as your core message. It’s like akin to, Mmm. Speaker 2: (27:49)I tell my candidates, if you’ve had multiple wives or multiple affairs, that’s not necessarily kiss of death in politics unless you’re running in a Republican primary where your brand promise is that you or the family values candidate, that is your fundamental reason for existence. Then if it turns out you’ve had six different wives, you’ve been a serial philanderer, Mmm, you’re, you’ve aborted 10 children, you know, 10 kids, blah, blah, blah. Well, that’s a huge problem because it undermines your fundamental brand promise. So saying, well, Trump’s not, you know, Trump is not a pillar of, uh, decency. Well, that’s apples and oranges. That’s not, Trump is not running on vote for me because I’m the decent candidate. He’s saying, vote for me because I’m in your best interest economically and otherwise I’ve got your back. That’s why Trump’s running. So I just don’t see it. Uh, I think Biden’s gonna have a hard time beating Trump. Speaker 2: (29:01)Not to mention Biden is not a stable player. I really do think he has, uh, uh, you know, we talk about that. He’s talk about that he’s lost his fastball. I’m now convinced that he has early onset of dementia or something. And I don’t say that, I’m not saying that with any glee. I’m just, I could recognize when you see, I mean, he’s not, he’s just not there. Um, we all know that there are 77 year old people that are literally, might as well, they’re as vibrant, more vibrant than 50 year olds. And then there are 77 year old people that actually look like there are 110 years old in terms of their cognitive abilities and Biden’s like the 50 year old, uh, both in physical stamina, hence the sleepy Joe remark, but also the mental acuity. It’s just, it just simply not there. So those are my thoughts. Speaker 2: (29:54)Uh, we’re past super Tuesday. The race is on. Uh, it’s, it’s still incredibly exciting. I hope you enjoyed super Tuesday as much as I did. I, I think I got like 10 minutes of sleep. Ah, on super Tuesday between, you did a couple of Fox news appearances. I was at KFI radio, election night parties, candidate regrouping and aftermath and victory statements and concessions. I was just a lot, uh, still tired, but that’s why we have coffee. But I’ll tell you, I love every second of it so you can tweet me at Thomas. Got, Oh, you know what, I just thought of one more thing before we close the show. Uh, on Twitter. Let’s see here. It was actually a pretty good point, mate. See if I could find it by one of my Twitter friends. Uh, let’s see if I can find it here. It was a great point about the apparatus that Bloomberg, Oh, here we go. Speaker 2: (30:57)Okay. So, um, a Twitter follower, uh, of the show, his name is Kings fan, 44, Z. I don’t know his name, but he span 44 Z, uh, made a point, a remark and copied me. Uh, Andrew Yang said, uh, uh, when he talked about he retweeted the idea that Michael Bloomberg was dropping out. And then yang said, Mike Bloomberg will have a lot to do if the Democrats defeat Trump in the fall. His resources and data analytics are second to none. Who does the Hanford commitment to the country and from making this decision, meaning dropping out and supporting a nominee. Okay. Uh, or, or endorsing Joe Biden. All right. And then the Kingspan Kingspan said second to none operation, which is why he won the all important America American Samoa primary. Um, so that brings up a broader point, which is Biden’s, uh, Bloomberg’s money didn’t work for him. His operation didn’t work for him. Speaker 2: (32:05)He is, uh, he is, he built out an entire data analytics company just for this run. It was supposedly very cutting edge. Well, it didn’t work for Bloomberg. Is it going to work for Biden? It comes down to if the product itself is terribly flawed, no amount of advertising or analytics or all these things are going to overcome in a high information contest. It’s just not going to, it’s not going to get you across the finish line. So [inaudible] Biden better off inheriting all this special interest, uh, Bloomberg cash and operation. Yes, but you’re still stuck with Joe Biden and that it’s, it’s, this gets back to the Democrats saying, Oh, the Russians hacked the election and they, they rigged it. The Russians rigged the election in favor of Donald Trump. Well, not really. Mike Bloomberg had $500 million, an entire national field network and a data company that he founded and analytics company just to help him. Speaker 2: (33:11)And it didn’t change the outcome. Why? Because Mike Bloomberg stinks is a product. Hillary Clinton sucked as a product. Donald Trump hit his stride and was doing the right message at the right time. So yes, does do campaigns need to run modern efforts to, they need to use data-driven, uh, metrics? Yeah, absolutely. Do we need field staffers for sure, but you’ve got to have a product to sell the product can’t be flawed. So I think Mike Bloomberg zap RAs will be more useful for Joe Biden than it was Mike Bloomberg, but I still think they’re stuck with Joe Biden and he’s not a incredibly strong candidate. All right, that’s my 2 cents on that. You can tweet me at the Thomas guide on Twitter. You can go to the Thomas guy.com sign up for the email list. Check out all our podcasts. Of course, I’m on Facebook and you name it, and if you want, you can leave me a review on iTunes. That’s helpful too to help the show. So thanks so much for listening. We’ll catch you tomorrow on another episode of the Thomas guide.